全球自然橡胶产量仍处于增长周期，中国市场中终端橡胶需求的增长率持续下降。天然橡胶市场的供求关系仍然过度供应。
More than half of 2018 has passed, with the natural rubber market first experiencing a one-off fall in the first half of the year and then a long period of low volatility.Since late June, the shanghai-gum 1901 contract has been running for more than three months in a narrow range of 11,545 yuan\/ton to 12875 yuan\/ton.In my opinion, the chances of the shanghai-gum 1901 contract going out of the rally over the接下来的两个月已经有限，在当前波动范围内结束合同的可能性很高。
First, from the supply side.By September, China had imported 1.85 million tons of natural rubber, compared with 2.02 million tons in the same period last year.By September, China had imported 3.27 million tons of synthetic rubber, compared with 3.09 million tons in the same period last year, an increase of about 180,000 tons.In terms of total rubber imports, the import supply in the first three quarters of 2018 was slightly higher比2017年。从显式清单的角度来看，截至10月16日，上海期货交易所的仓库数量为57,400吨，去年同期为373,200吨，橡胶库存的橡胶清单，Qingdao Bonded Warehouse的贴合仓库是112，{18} {18}} thement和198,9,00 000,900 the stock of rubber in the futures warehouse and bonded warehouse of Shanghai futures exchange, the current level of dominant inventory is still about 57,000 tons higher than last year.In particular, the high price of rubber warehouse receipt in Shanghai futures exchange has a more obvious impact on the futures price, which makes the price of shanghai-gum 1901 lower than the current performance of shanghai-gum 1801年的合同。同一时期的明显库存增长略高于同一时期的进口增长，这表明国内自然橡胶市场仍处于盈余和略微加重状态。
其次，请看下游需求。在9月底，中国已经生产并出售了2 0。4.913亿辆和204.906亿辆汽车，同比增长0.9％和1.5％，增长率下降了1.9个百分点，每年的生产率分别为1.9个百分点的生产率。 6.47亿轮胎同比增长1.4％，下降了近4.4个百分点。当橡胶供应的总量保持相对稳定时，下游需求放缓无疑是供应需求关系恶化的另一个重要原因。
In addition, the output of natural rubber in the main producing country is still increasing.According to the latest report data, from January to August 2018, the natural rubber output of Thailand, the main producing country, reached 2.783 million tons, with an increase of about 140,000 tons, and that of Indonesia, the main producing country, reached about 2.598 million tons, with an increase of about 390，000吨。但是，仍然很难改变这一事实，即全球天然橡胶生产的增长相对较大。因此，由于泰国和印度尼西亚的两个主要天然橡胶主要生产商的国内生产没有显着减少，因此全球自然橡胶供应额将很长一段时间。